Baseball is still roughly 3 weeks away from us scanning box scores every day, but the MLB home run betting market is already buzzing.
Fresh data from BetMGM shows bettors loading up on everything from season-long HR totals to league leader futures and milestone props like 30+, 35+, and 40+ home runs.
And if early betting patterns tell us anything, the public is expecting a power surge in 2026.
Two names dominate the market:
Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani.
But some of the most interesting money is landing on breakout power candidates and prospect longshots that could create huge payouts if things go right.
Let’s break down where bettors are putting their tickets, and their money.
Most Bet MLB Home Run Totals (2026)
Early bettors are leaning heavily toward overs on emerging power hitters, with one surprising name sitting at the top.
| Rank | Player | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| ① | Brent Rooker | Over 32.5 HR | +100 |
| ② | Shohei Ohtani | Under 48.5 HR | -115 |
| ③ | Oneil Cruz | Over 20.5 HR | -125 |
| ④ | Aaron Judge | Over 49.5 HR | -110 |
| ⑤ | Pete Alonso | Over 37.5 HR | -120 |
CLEATZ Take:
The Rooker over being the most bet HR prop is one of the more interesting signals. Bettors clearly believe last season’s power output wasn’t a fluke.
Meanwhile, Ohtani’s under 48.5 HR suggests bettors think sportsbooks may be pricing in peak Ohtani already.
Most Bet to Lead MLB in Home Runs
When bettors chase the home run crown, they usually gravitate toward the obvious power kings.
| Rank | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| ① | Aaron Judge | +350 |
| ② | Cal Raleigh | +900 |
| ③ | Nick Kurtz | +1000 |
| ④ | Shohei Ohtani | +400 |
| ⑤ | Jac Caglianone | +8000 |
CLEATZ Insight:
Judge leading the ticket count isn’t surprising. When healthy, he’s essentially a 60-HR threat every season.
But two names jumping into the top five, Nick Kurtz and Jac Caglianone, show bettors are already chasing young power hype.
Where the Most Money Is Landing
Ticket count and money don’t always align. But in this market, the big bettors agree with the crowd.
| Rank | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| ① | Aaron Judge | +350 |
| ② | Shohei Ohtani | +400 |
| ③ | Junior Caminero | +2000 |
| ④ | Cal Raleigh | +900 |
| ⑤ | James Wood | +15000 |
CLEATZ Angle:
The most interesting entry here is James Wood at +15000.
That’s classic lottery-ticket futures betting, low probability, massive upside if the breakout actually happens.
Most Bet 40+ Home Run Props
Hitting 40 home runs remains one of the most iconic milestones in baseball. Bettors are targeting a mix of rising stars and established power bats.
| Rank | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| ① | Colson Montgomery | +1600 |
| ② | Munetaka Murakami | +1000 |
| ③ | Spencer Torkelson | +1600 |
| ④ | Kyle Tucker | +900 |
| ⑤ | Fernando Tatis Jr. | +600 |
Murakami’s inclusion reflects the global hype around the Japanese slugger’s MLB arrival.
Most Bet 35+ Home Run Props
| Rank | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| ① | Alex Bregman | +450 |
| ② | Cody Bellinger | +400 |
| ③ | Elly De La Cruz | +400 |
| ④ | Matt Chapman | +400 |
| ⑤ | Roman Anthony | +450 |
The most interesting name here might be Elly De La Cruz. His elite exit velocity and speed combination make him one of the most volatile power bets in baseball.
Most Bet 30+ Home Run Props
| Rank | Player | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| ① | Brent Rooker | -165 |
| ② | Kyle Tucker | +130 |
| ③ | Munetaka Murakami | +145 |
| ④ | Fernando Tatis Jr. | +145 |
| ⑤ | Cody Bellinger | +240 |
This is where bettors appear most confident.
Rooker at -165 implies the market sees him as one of the safest 30-HR bets in baseball.
CLEATZ Betting Takeaways
A few clear betting themes are emerging:
1. Judge vs Ohtani is still the center of the power universe
Bettors are treating the HR crown as a two-man race.
2. Young power hype is driving futures tickets
Players like Nick Kurtz, Colson Montgomery, and Roman Anthony are already drawing major action early in their career.
3. Power breakouts are where bettors see value
Names like Brent Rooker, Oneil Cruz, and Spencer Torkelson suggest bettors believe last year’s power growth could continue.
Final Thoughts Before Placing Your Bets
Home run betting is one of the most volatile futures markets in sports betting. One injury, swing adjustment, or hot streak can flip the leaderboard overnight. But if early betting patterns are any indicator, bettors are preparing for another monster power season in Major League Baseball.
