College Football Playoff Public Betting Consensus
The College Football Playoff attracts more casual bettors than at any other time of the year, creating massive opportunities for smart bettors.
Below, we track the ‘Public Consensus’ (where the crowd is betting) versus the ‘Sharp Money’ (where the high-volume pros are betting). When you see a team getting 80% of the tickets but less than 50% of the money, pay attention. That discrepancy is your signal to stop, look at the spread, and potentially ‘Fade the Public’ to align with the house.
CFB Title Game Public Bets via DraftKings
Miami (FL) at Indiana
Monday, January 19, 2026
Spread
| Team | Line | Handle | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (FL) | +7.5 | 13% | 14% |
| Indiana | -7.5 | 87% | 86% |
Total
| Side | Total | Handle | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 48.5 | 78% | 88% |
| Under | 48.5 | 22% | 12% |
Moneyline
| Team | Odds | Handle | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami (FL) | +260 | 52% | 42% |
| Indiana | -325 | 48% | 58% |
Betting Summary
- Public is all over Indiana ATS: Nearly 90% of both handle and tickets backing Indiana -7.5.
- Total heavily skewed to the Over: Almost 9 out of 10 bets on Over 48.5 — very public-looking.
- Interesting moneyline split: Miami only has 42% of bets but 52% of handle, hinting at larger wagers on the underdog despite Indiana being the popular side.
CFB Playoffs Prediction Market Odds – Kalshi
CFB Betting Strategy FAQs
“Brand Bias” occurs when casual bettors flood the market with bets on popular “Blue Blood” programs (like Alabama, Ohio State, or Georgia) simply because they recognize the name. This heavy public volume often forces sportsbooks to inflate the point spread, creating artificial value on the underdog or the lesser-known opponent.
In the playoffs, the public often overreacts to the previous week’s result. If a team won their semi-final by 30 points, the public consensus will heavily favor them in the Championship game regardless of the matchup. Sharp bettors often fade this “recency bias,” knowing that one blowout doesn’t guarantee another dominance in a title game.
The general public overwhelmingly bets the Over. Casual fans tune in to see touchdowns and excitement, leading to inflated total lines. If the consensus data shows 80% of tickets on the Over, but the line isn’t moving (or is moving down), it indicates sharp money is likely expecting a defensive battle.
