Another week, another data drop that proves prediction markets are still the most entertaining mix of finance, gambling, and “I read one chart so now I am Nate Silver.”
Let’s dive into the numbers from the past week.
Transactions: Kalshi and Polymarket are a Two-Horse Race
Kalshi and Polymarket continue to run away from the field like they are in a congressional race where nobody else bothered to file.
- Kalshi $4.85M
- Polymarket $4.32M
- Opinion Labs $0.36M
- Limitless $0.32M
- Myriad $0.29M
Total: $10.15M
WoW Growth: 5 percent
A clean bump week over week. People are betting. People are coping. Business is good.
Open Interest: Kalshi and Polymarket Own the Board
The big dogs continue to dominate OI, with everything else looking like a rounding error.
- Kalshi $320M
- Polymarket $265M
- Opinion Labs $45M
- Limitless $1M
- Myriad $0.829M
Total: $633M
WoW Growth: 3 percent
Slow and steady. Like an economy where no one believes the Fed but everyone pretends they do.
Notional Volume: Kalshi Leads, Polymarket Close Behind, Opinion Labs in Third
Notional volume had a week. And by that, I mean it shrank like the crypto market after a DOJ press conference.
- Kalshi $1.14B
- Polymarket $0.98B
- Opinion Labs $0.82B
- Myriad $18M
- Limitless $16M
Total: $3.66B
WoW Growth: minus 18 percent
The volatility gods giveth and taketh away.
Users: Polymarket Still the People’s Champion
Polymarket remains the platform where the masses gather like a Reddit thread, just with fewer cat pictures and way more geopolitical hot takes. Plus a feature on 60 Minutes.
- Polymarket 225K
- Opinion Labs 31K
- Limitless 12K
- Myriad 2.1K
Total: 272K
WoW Growth: 0.8 percent
Slight gain. Nothing crazy. Just enough to keep the charts looking healthy.
Cleatz Weekly Predictions Takeaway
- Kalshi continues ruling both transactions and OI with surgical consistency
- Polymarket remains the user growth locomotive
- Opinion Labs is the sleeper giant sitting on real notional muscle
- Limitless and Myriad are still the indie bands of the sector, beloved by a few and ignored by the many, but still posting respectable numbers
- Overall volume dipped, but activity stayed strong. Markets remain lively and weird, exactly how we like them
Another week, another reminder that prediction markets are becoming a real part of the financial landscape or at least a more entertaining version of it.
