Are you looking to bet on the NFL Playoffs? Before you lock in your picks for the 49ers, Bills, Bears, or Broncos, watch/read this breakdown. We analyze the historical Straight Up (SU) and Against The Spread (ATS) records for Wild Card underdogs advancing to the Divisional Round. Plus, we look at a bizarre 40-year anomaly that suggests the Denver Broncos might be a lock if they close as underdogs.
Trend #1:
Teams to win as an underdog in the Wild Card round are 8-30 SU and 19-19 ATS in the Divisional Round since 2003. Since 2011, those teams are 3-22 SU and 13-12 ATS.
Teams Impacted: 49ers, Bills, Bears
Trend #2
Teams that won but failed to cover in their previous playoff game — and are not coming off a bye — are 21–12 ATS since 2003 and 8–2 ATS since 2020.
Team Impacted: LA Rams
Trend #3
If the Broncos close as underdogs, it would mark just the fourth time in the last 40 years that a Divisional Round team coming off a bye is not listed as a favorite.
The previous three? All won outright:
• 2017–18: Eagles +2.5 vs. Falcons (PHI won)
• 2011–12: 49ers +3.5 vs. Saints (SF won)
• 1996–97: Panthers +3.5 vs. Cowboys (CAR won)
Trend #4
Divisional Round Reality Check
Home teams off a bye have NOT been cashing.
• Since 2003: 33–44–1 ATS (43%)
• Since 2020: Just 3–7 ATS
• As 7+ point favorites off a bye: 17–26–1 ATS (40%)
Games Impacted: 49ers vs. Seahawks
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