Welcome back to Cleatz.com’s NFL Player Props Today, where we break down the smartest Over/Under bets and stat-based edges across the Week 10 slate.
Every line below is based on verified sportsbook data, with prop hit rates, matchup notes, and a dash of wit from your favorite football nerds.
Top 5 NFL Player Props Today
| Player | Team | Prop | Line | Odds | Hit Rate | Trend Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nix | DEN | Rushing Yards | o20.5 | -114 | 80% | Rushed over 20.5 yds in 4 of last 5. Vegas allowed QBs >20.5 yds in 6 of last 10. |
| Bo Nix | DEN | Passing Yards | o217.5 | -114 | 80% | Threw over 217.5 yds in 4 of last 5 home games. Raiders allowed QBs >217.5 yds in 7 of 10. |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | Longest Reception | o21.5 | -120 | 80% | Recorded 22+ yd catch in 4 of last 5. |
| Courtland Sutton | DEN | Receiving Yards | o54.5 | -110 | 60% | Surpassed 54.5 yds in 3 of last 5. |
| Evan Engram | DEN | Longest Reception | o13.5 | -120 | 60% | 14+ yd catch in 3 of last 5. TEs vs LV hit this 4 of last 5. |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | Rushing Yards | o72.5 | -113 | 60% | Topped 72.5 yds in 3 of last 5. |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | Longest Rush | o16.5 | -110 | 60% | 17+ yd rush in 3 of last 5. |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | Rush + Rec TDs | o0.5 | +190 | 60% | Scored in 3 of last 5. |
| RJ Harvey | DEN | Longest Reception | o8.5 | -120 | 60% | 9+ yd catch in 3 of last 5. |
| Brock Bowers | LV | Longest Reception | o21.5 | -105 | 80% | 22+ yd reception in 8 of last 10 road games. |
| Brock Bowers | LV | Receiving Yards | o66.5 | -111 | 70% | Over 66.5 yds in 7 of last 10 road games. |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | Longest Reception | o9.5 | -120 | 60% | 10+ yd catch in 3 of last 5. RBs vs DEN hit this 6 of 9. |
| Ashton Jeanty | LV | Rush + Rec TDs | o0.5 | +125 | 60% | Scored in 3 of last 5. |
| Geno Smith | LV | Passing Yards | o212.5 | -113 | 80% | Threw for 213+ yds in 4 of last 5 road games. |
| Geno Smith | LV | Passing TDs | o0.5 | -264 | 62.5% | At least 1 passing TD in 5 of 8 this season. |
💡 Data via public sportsbook feeds and Cleatz prop tools.
Game Spotlight: Raiders vs. Broncos (TNF)
Why it matters:
The Broncos are rolling at 7-2 and the Raiders need a season saving win at 2-6. The Raiders do have 2x revenge vs. Denver coming into TNF.
Prop Spotlight:
- High-confidence overs: Bo Nix (both passing + rushing), Courtland Sutton (longest reception).
- Consistent trends: Geno Smith and Brock Bowers have quietly hit their marks 70–80% of the time.
- Value plays: RJ Harvey anytime TD at +190 and Ashton Jeanty at +125 both show 60% hit rates — solid value for plus-money.
| Player | Team | Prop | Line | Odds | Implied Prob. | ’25 Hit Rate | DVP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | LV | Passing TDs | o0.5 | -264 | 72.5% | 62.5% (5/8) | 44.4% (4/9) |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | 1Q Rushing Yards | o14.5 | -175 | 63.6% | 33.3% (3/9) | 25% (2/8) |
| Brock Bowers | LV | Receptions | o5.5 | -175 | 63.6% | 20% (1/5) | 11.1% (1/9) |
| Geno Smith | LV | Interceptions Thrown | o0.5 | -173 | 63.4% | 75% (6/8) | 33.3% (3/9) |
| Brock Bowers | LV | Receiving Yards | o59.5 | -157 | 61.1% | 40% (2/5) | 33.3% (3/9) |
| Troy Franklin | DEN | 1Q Receptions | o4.5 | -137 | 57.8% | 44.4% (4/9) | 62.5% (5/8) |
| Troy Franklin | DEN | Receptions | o3.5 | -137 | 57.8% | 55.6% (5/9) | 62.5% (5/8) |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | Touchdowns | o0.5 | -132 | 56.9% | 44.4% (4/9) | 25% (2/8) |
| J.K. Dobbins | DEN | Rushing Yards | o69.5 | -131 | 56.7% | 66.7% (6/9) | 12.5% (1/8) |
| Bo Nix | DEN | Passing TDs | o1.5 | -129 | 56.3% | 55.6% (5/9) | 37.5% (3/8) |
| Bo Nix | DEN | Passing Attempts | o32.5 | -129 | 56.3% | 55.6% (5/9) | 62.5% (5/8) |
| Bo Nix | DEN | Passing Completions | o20.5 | -128 | 56.1% | 55.6% (5/9) | 62.5% (5/8) |
📊 Public Betting: Raiders +9.5 are currently seeing 59% of the overall betting handle at DraftKings.
Sunday Sleepers
Three under-the-radar props flying below the radar:
| Player | Team | Prop | Line | Odds | Hit Rate | Trend Summary |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Warren | IND | Longest Reception | o18.5 | -120 | 100% | Recorded a 19+ yard reception in 5 of his last 5 home games. Averaging 24.8 yards on longest catch. |
| Kyle Pitts Sr. | ATL | Longest Reception | o18.5 | -115 | 80% | Had a 19+ yard reception in 4 of his last 5 games. TEs vs. Indy have cleared this line in 3 of the last 5. |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | Longest Completion | o33.5 | -115 | 80% | Thrown a completion of 34+ yards in 4 of the last 5 games. Averaging 42.2 yards on longest pass. |
| Michael Penix Jr. | ATL | Longest Rush | o5.5 | -115 | 60% | Had a 6+ yard rush in 3 of last 5. QBs vs. Indy hit this in 8 of last 10 games. |
Trends to Watch This Week
POSTED ON WEDNESDAY
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Props are where the sharpest action hides, and Sundays are made for edges like these.
Keep this page bookmarked and check back every Thursday, Sunday, and Monday for new updates.
