Thanksgiving football is here, which means two things:
- America is about to eat 4,500 calories before 4pm.
- The betting public is about to do the exact same thing bettors do every holiday season: Absolutely hammer the obvious sides and pray Aunt Linda does not ask how your “sports analytics website thing” is going.
DraftKings public betting splits for Thursday and Black Friday are in, and wow. If these numbers hit, sportsbooks might need the same “emergency support” you need after your third plate of stuffing.
Let’s get into it.
Packers at Lions (Thanksgiving, 10:30am MT)
Line: Lions -3
Handle: 89 percent Lions
Bets: 85 percent Lions
Total: 48.5
America’s betting public looked at Detroit hosting Green Bay, remembered the 30 years of trauma Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers caused them, and said: “Not this time.”
The Lions are pulling nearly 90 percent of the handle, which is one of the biggest Thanksgiving public sides in years. If Detroit covers, every dad in America will pretend he “knew it all along.”
Chiefs at Cowboys (Thanksgiving, 2:30pm MT)
Line: Chiefs -4.5
Handle: 52 percent Kansas City
Bets: 55 percent Kansas City
Moneyline: Kansas City -205 (60 percent handle)
This is the only game where bettors are somewhat balanced, which is good because both fanbases think the world revolves around them.
Kansas City is getting a slight majority, but nothing like the Lions wave.
The total at 52.5 is basically a coin flip too.
Bengals at Ravens (Thanksgiving Night)
Line: Ravens -7.5
Handle on Spread: Bengals 68 percent
Bets on Spread: Bengals 57 percent
Moneyline Handle: Ravens 90 percent
This game is chaos.
Spread bettors are on Cincinnati, moneyline bettors are on Baltimore, and your uncle is on his fifth glass of boxed Chardonnay.
The +7.5 is pulling a huge 68 percent of the handle for Cincinnati.
But the Ravens moneyline at -425 is attracting 90 percent of the money.
This is what happens when people want the favorite to win but do not trust them to cover.
Also known as: Classic Thanksgiving Night Betting.
BLACK FRIDAY GAME: Bears at Eagles
Line: Eagles -7.5
Handle: Bears 71 percent
Bets: Bears 65 percent
Total: 45.5 with 99 percent handle on the Over
This game has the single funniest split of the week:
The Bears +7.5 are the most public spread of Thanksgiving weekend.
You read that right.
Chicago.
Chicago.
The public faded the Eagles on their own holiday weekend like they are fading cranberry sauce.
And the total:
Over 45.5 has 99 percent of the handle and 81 percent of the bets.
That is not a typo. Ninety-nine percent.
If this game ends 13 to 10, sportsbooks will erupt in applause loud enough to scare your neighbor’s dog.
Biggest Public Sides by Spread Handle
- Lions -3 at 89 percent
- Bears +7.5 at 71 percent
- Bengals +7.5 at 68 percent
- Chiefs -4.5 at 52 percent
This is a dangerous combination of bets:
– A double-digit Lions avalanche
– A public dog in primetime
– And somehow the Bears are America’s team on Friday
Good luck to everyone involved.
Cleatz Tips
Thanksgiving is when sportsbooks beg for just one thing:
A weird upset.
A low-scoring sludgefest.
Something Mike Tirico can call “unexpected.”
With how lopsided these splits are, even one busted public side could swing the day.
Until then, happy hammering. May your bets be sharp and your relatives not ask how your parlays are doing.
