Looking to hit a home run with your MLB betting (I know, cheezy🤪)? Daily home run prop bets are one of the most exciting ways to get in on the action, offering fans and bettors a chance to wager on which sluggers will go yard in any given game. Whether you’re a seasoned sports bettor or a crazed DFS player dipping your toes into the world of player props, our daily MLB home run props have you covered.
From top power hitters to under-the-radar sleepers, we’ll break down the best bets, key stats, and expert insights to help you make informed picks every day of the season. Bookmark this page and swing by for the latest updates as we track the dingers all season long!
O/U Home Run Lines Movement on PrizePicks
| Player | Previous Line | PrizePicks | Change | % Change | Updated At |
| Alex Bregman | 20.5 | 21.5 | 1 | 4.9% | 2 days ago |
| Ryan McMahon | 18.5 | 20.5 | 2 | 10.8% | 2 days ago |
| Jurickson Profar | 18.5 | 17.5 | -1 | 5.4% | 12 days ago |
| Vladimir Guerrero | 31.5 | 32.5 | 1 | 3.2% | 18 days ago |
| Corey Seager | 28.5 | 29.5 | 1 | 3.5% | 18 days ago |
| Spencer Torkelson | 18.5 | 17.5 | -1 | 5.4% | 18 days ago |
| Bryce Harper | 28.5 | 29.5 | 1 | 3.5% | 21 days ago |
| Fernando Tatis | 30.5 | 31.5 | 1 | 3.3% | 21 days ago |
| Brent Rooker | 33.5 | 35.5 | 2 | 6.0% | 21 days ago |
| Mike Trout | 24.5 | 25.5 | 1 | 4.1% | 21 days ago |
| Jackson Chourio | 21.5 | 22.5 | 1 | 4.7% | 21 days ago |
| Gunnar Henderson | 31.5 | 32.5 | 1 | 3.2% | 21 days ago |
| Mookie Betts | 26.5 | 27.5 | 1 | 3.8% | 21 days ago |
| James Wood | 21.5 | 19.5 | -2 | 9.3% | 24 days ago |
| Jackson Merrill | 24.5 | 23.5 | -1 | 4.1% | 24 days ago |
| Jake Burger | 28.5 | 26.5 | -2 | 7.0% | 24 days ago |
| Yordan Alvarez | 34.5 | 35.5 | 1 | 2.9% | 25 days ago |
| Rafael Devers | 29.5 | 30.5 | 1 | 3.4% | 25 days ago |
| Matt Olson | 32.5 | 33.5 | 1 | 3.1% | 25 days ago |
| Anthony Santander | 30.5 | 31.5 | 1 | 3.3% | 25 days ago |
| Jarren Duran | 17.5 | 18.5 | 1 | 5.7% | 25 days ago |
| Francisco Lindor | 27.5 | 28.5 | 1 | 3.6% | 25 days ago |
| Aaron Judge | 50.5 | 49.5 | -1 | 2.0% | 1 month ago |
| Elly De La Cruz | 23.5 | 24.5 | 1 | 4.3% | 1 month ago |
General Home Run Odds Movement on PrizePicks
A quick scan reveals that most players (22 out of 32) saw their home run lines increase, with changes ranging from +1 to +2. Eight players experienced a decrease in their lines, with drops of -1 or -2, and two players (Aaron Judge and Francisco Lindor) saw a decrease of -1. The percentage change in the lines varies from 2.0% (Aaron Judge) to 10.8% (Ryan McMahon), reflecting the magnitude of adjustment relative to the original line.
- Upward Movements: Players like Brent Rooker (+2, 6.0%), Ryan McMahon (+2, 10.8%), and Jake Burger (-2, 7.0%) saw significant adjustments. Rooker’s line moved from 33.5 to 35.5, McMahon’s from 18.5 to 20.5, and Burger’s from 28.5 to 26.5 (notably a downward shift).
- Downward Movements: Players like James Wood (-2, 9.3%), Jake Burger (-2, 7.0%), and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (-1, 5.4%) saw their lines drop. Wood’s line fell from 21.5 to 19.5, a notable 9.3% decrease, which could reflect a tougher matchup, a slow start to the season, or an overcorrection from an initially high projection.
- Stable Lines with Minor Adjustments: Players like Yordan Alvarez (+1, 2.9%), Matt Olson (+1, 3.1%), and Fernando Tatis (+1, 3.3%) saw modest upward adjustments. These smaller percentage changes (around 3%) suggest PrizePicks is fine-tuning expectations rather than reacting to major shifts in performance or market sentiment.
Key Players to Highlight
- Ryan McMahon (+2, 10.8%): McMahon’s line saw the largest percentage increase, moving from 18.5 to 20.5. This adjustment, updated on 3/11/25, indicates a recent surge in confidence in his power potential.
- James Wood (-2, 9.3%): Wood’s line dropped significantly from 21.5 to 19.5, the largest percentage decrease in the table. Updated 24 days ago, this adjustment might reflect early concerns about Wood’s ability to sustain power numbers in his first full MLB season.
- Aaron Judge (-1, 2.0%): Judge’s line moved from 50.5 to 49.5, the smallest percentage change in the table. Updated a month ago, this minor adjustment might not fully reflect his current form, as Judge is typically a home run machine. The downward shift could be an early-season conservative estimate, but given his track record, bettors might see value in the over if this line hasn’t been updated recently.
- Brent Rooker (+2, 6.0%): Rooker’s line jumped from 33.5 to 35.5, a notable increase for a player who has shown power potential in recent seasons.
🚨 DraftKings Most Regular Season Home Runs Odds
🔥 Favorites
🔹 Aaron Judge +400
🔹 Shohei Ohtani +600
💣 Top Contenders
🔹 Kyle Schwarber +1200
🔹 Fernando Tatis Jr. +1800
🔹 Pete Alonso +1900
🔹 Yordan Alvarez +2000
💥 Solid Power Bats
🔹 Juan Soto +2800
🔹 Brent Rooker +3000
🔹 Anthony Santander +3000
🔹 Matt Olson +3000
🔹 Kyle Tucker +3000
🔹 Gunnar Henderson +3000
âš¾ Longshots with Pop
🔹 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +3500
🔹 Bryce Harper +4000
🔹 Jose Ramirez +4000
🔹 Christian Walker +4000
🔹 Mike Trout +5000
🚀 Dark Horses
🔹 Teoscar Hernandez +5500
🔹 Tyler O’Neill +5500
🔹 Rafael Devers +5500
🔹 Mark Vientos +5500
🔹 Marcell Ozuna +5500
🔹 Jake Burger +6500
💎 Sleepers
🔹 Giancarlo Stanton +8000
🔹 Austin Riley +8000
🔹 Corey Seager +8000
🔹 Bobby Witt Jr. +10000
🔹 Ronald Acuña Jr. +10000
🔹 Manny Machado +10000
🔹 Ketel Marte +10000
🔹 Cody Bellinger +10000
🎯 Super Longshots
🔹 Lawrence Butler +11000
🔹 Adolis Garcia +11000
🔹 Oneil Cruz +11000
🔹 Luis Robert Jr. +11000
🔹 Josh Naylor +11000
🔹 Isaac Paredes +11000
🔹 Cal Raleigh +11000
🌟 Deep Sleeper Picks
🔹 Jarren Duran +12000
🔹 Elly De La Cruz +13000
🔹 Salvador Perez +14000
🔹 Francisco Lindor +14000
🔹 Alex Bregman +15000
🔹 Vinnie Pasquantino +15000
🔹 Triston Casas +15000
🔹 Royce Lewis +15000
🔹 Mookie Betts +15000
🔹 Julio Rodriguez +15000
🔹 Jorge Soler +15000
🔹 Jhonkensy Noel +15000
🚀 Players to Record 25+ Home Runs (Odds)
🔒 Big Favorites
🔥 Giancarlo Stanton -450
🔥 Jose Ramirez -370
🔥 Bobby Witt Jr. -370
🔥 Mike Trout -340
🔥 Manny Machado -340
💪 Strong Contenders
âš¡ Bryce Harper -310
âš¡ Teoscar Hernandez -310
âš¡ Julio Rodriguez -310
âš¡ Cal Raleigh -310
âš¡ Jake Burger -270
âš¡ Mookie Betts -250
💣 Likely Sluggers
🔹 Lawrence Butler -230
🔹 Corey Seager -230
🔹 Adolis Garcia -230
🔹 Jorge Soler -215
🔹 Luis Robert Jr. -200
🔹 Junior Caminero -200
🔹 Jazz Chisholm Jr. -200
🔹 Francisco Lindor -200
🔹 Triston Casas -200
âš¾ Dark Horses
💥 Jackson Chourio -185
💥 Byron Buxton -170
💥 Royce Lewis -170
💥 Rhys Hoskins -160
💥 ONeil Cruz -160
💥 Ketel Marte -160
💥 Tyler Soderstrom -160
🔥 Underrated Value Picks
🔸 Elly De La Cruz -145
🔸 Shea Langeliers -145
🔸 Corbin Carroll -145
🔸 Salvador Perez -140
🔸 Ronald Acuña Jr. -140
🔸 Michael Toglia -130
🔸 Jackson Merrill -130
💎 Potential Breakouts
💥 Michael Harris -115
💥 Matt Chapman -115
💥 Willy Adames -115
💥 Isaac Paredes -115
💥 Tyler O’Neill -115
💥 Vinnie Pasquantino -115
🎯 Longshots Who Could Surprise
âš¾ Max Muncy -105
âš¾ Taylor Ward -105
âš¾ Marcus Semien -105
âš¾ Freddie Freeman -105
How To Bet Home Run Props Before & During The Season
As a bettor focusing on MLB home run prop bets, my approach is systematic, data-driven, and disciplined.
Here’s how I tackle it during the MLB season:
1. Understand the Market
Home run prop bets typically come in two forms: “Will Player X hit a home run?” (Yes/No) or “Over/Under X home runs” for a game or series. Odds are set based on player performance, matchups, and external factors. My goal is to identify inefficiencies in the lines where the implied probability doesn’t match the actual likelihood.
2. Data Analysis
I rely heavily on statistical models and historical data:
- Player Stats: Look at a batter’s home run rate (HR/AB), ISO (isolated power), fly ball percentage, and recent form (e.g., last 14 days). Guys with high fly ball rates and power metrics (e.g., Aaron Judge, Pete Alonso) are prime candidates.
- Pitcher Matchups: Analyze the opposing pitcher’s tendencies, HR/9 (home runs per nine innings), fly ball rate allowed, and pitch types. A pitcher who gives up a lot of fly balls or struggles with hard contact (e.g., high barrel rate allowed) is a green flag.
- Ballpark Factors: Adjust for park dimensions and weather. Coors Field or Great American Ball Park boost home run odds, while Oracle Park suppresses them. Check wind direction and temperature; warm, windy days favor hitters.
- Splits: Dig into batter vs. pitcher history (small sample, but useful) and platoon splits (e.g., lefty batter vs. righty pitcher). Some hitters crush specific pitch types (e.g., fastballs) that a pitcher leans on.
3. Situational Factors
- Lineup Position: Batters higher in the order (1-5) get more plate appearances, increasing their chances. A cleanup hitter (4th) often sees better pitches to drive.
- Game Context: In a high-scoring game script (e.g., weak starting pitchers on both sides), home runs are more likely. Check Vegas totals for clues.
- Fatigue: Late in the season, pitchers might be gassed, or batters might be slumping. Monitor rest days and travel schedules.
4. Finding Value
Sportsbooks aren’t perfect. They overreact to public perception or recent hot streaks.
- Compare implied odds (e.g., +300 implies a 25% chance) to my calculated probability. If I think a player has a 35% chance, but the line suggests 25%, that’s an edge.
- Fade overhyped players (e.g., a streaky hitter with inflated odds) and target undervalued ones (e.g., a consistent power hitter in a good matchup with longer odds).
5. Bankroll Management
- Bet sizing is key. I use a unit system (e.g., 1 unit = 1% of my bankroll) and never chase losses. For home run props, which are high-variance, I keep bets small and consistent—say, 0.5-1 unit per play.
- Spread action across multiple games to diversify risk. Home runs are unpredictable, so volume helps smooth variance.
6. My Daily Process
- Morning: Review starting pitchers, lineups, and weather reports. Cross-reference with my data model.
- Mid-day: Check opening lines and track movement. Early bets often have softer odds.
- Game Time: Monitor live betting if available; sometimes, a pitcher tipping pitches or an injury shifts the odds.
Example:
Say Shohei Ohtani is facing a pitcher with a 1.5 HR/9, a 45% fly ball rate allowed, in a hitter-friendly park with wind blowing out. Ohtani’s HR rate is 1 per 15 AB this season, and he’s +350 to hit a home run. My model estimates a 30% chance (1 HR per 20 AB adjusted for matchup/park), while +350 implies 22%. That’s a value bet—I’d take it.
Final HR Prop Tips
- Stay disciplined. Home run props are streaky, so avoid emotional bets after a cold run.
- Track every wager. Review weekly to refine my model and spot leaks.
- Adapt midseason. Pitchers improve, hitters slump, keep the data fresh.
