No clear lean · Research notes

Over 8.5

2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 8.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 1.2 → latest five: 2.8 targets/game. Change: +133.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	8.5	-120	-110
FD ↗	8.5	-114	-114
HRB	8.5	-120	-110
Novig ↗	8.5	-106	-113
CZR	8.5	-115	-113
MGM ↗	8.5	-115	-115
PIN	8.5	-114	-114
PP ↗	8.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets11

Target share10%

Catch %73%

Yds / rec3.0

Season 2026: 8 rec · 24 yds · red-zone targets 0 (0% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	BAL	4	2	2	1
2026 · W3	NYG	4	4	22	0
2026 · W2	PHI	1	1	1	0
2026 · W1	NYJ	2	1	-1	0
2025 · W18	JAX	3	3	17	0
2025 · W17	NO	2	2	10	0
2025 · W16	KC	0	0	0	0
2025 · W15	SF	2	1	8	1
2025 · W14	CLE	0	0	0	2
2025 · W13	JAX	2	1	3	0