No clear lean · Research notes

Over 7.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage.

Under 8.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies.

Historical workload

Previous five: 10.4 → latest five: 10.8 targets/game. Change: +3.8%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus7.5-140+110
B3657.5-132—
FD ↗7.5-144+108
HRB7.5-135+105
Novig ↗7.5-120+111
CZR ↗7.5-145—
DK7.5-140+110
MGM ↗7.5-150+110
FAN8.5+120-185
PIN7.5-133+100
PP ↗8DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗8.5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game8.3
Targets46
Target share31%
Catch %72%
Season 2026: 33 rec · 242 yds · red-zone targets 9 (32% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4NYG127310
2026 · W3SF119750
2026 · W2SEA108411
2026 · W1LAC139951
2025 · W18LA87650
2025 · W17CIN1310761
2025 · W16ATL84270
2025 · W15HOU13121342
2025 · W14LA95580
2025 · W13TB98821