Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 under 3.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

5/10 under 3.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 3.5–3.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 9.6 → latest five: 4.8 targets/game. Change: -50%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus3.5+112-144
FD ↗3.5+114-148
CZR ↗3.5+108-138
DK3.5+113-144
HRB3.5+110-145
Novig ↗3.5+125-138
PIN3.5+120-160
B3653.5+105—
FAN3.5+110-170
MGM ↗3.5+110-150
Rec / game2.3
Targets22
Target share18%
Catch %41%
Season 2026: 9 rec · 86 yds · red-zone targets 5 (26% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4SF6140
2026 · W3LA73460
2026 · W2JAX43250
2026 · W1KC52110
2025 · W18LAC2150
2025 · W17KC104400
2025 · W16JAX126861
2025 · W15GB1071131
2025 · W14LV106620
2025 · W13WAS65621