Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 3.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 over 3.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 3.5–3.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 8.2 → latest five: 6.6 targets/game. Change: -19.5%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	3.5	-134	+104
B365	3.5	-116	—
FD ↗	3.5	-138	+104
HRB	3.5	-135	+105
Novig ↗	3.5	-125	+104
CZR ↗	3.5	-134	+103
DK	3.5	-132	+104
MGM ↗	3.5	-115	-115
FAN	3.5	-135	-110
PIN	3.5	-128	-104

Rec / game4.0

Targets25

Target share16%

Catch %64%

Season 2026: 16 rec · 229 yds · red-zone targets 2 (6% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	CAR	8	6	102	0
2026 · W3	NYJ	4	4	49	0
2026 · W2	BUF	4	2	33	0
2026 · W1	NO	9	4	45	0
2025 · W18	CHI	8	6	74	0
2025 · W17	MIN	3	2	37	0
2025 · W16	PIT	9	5	70	0
2025 · W15	LA	10	7	134	1
2025 · W14	DAL	9	7	96	0
2025 · W13	GB	10	7	144	1