No clear lean · Research notes

Over 7.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 7.5

2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4.4 → latest five: 3.2 opportunities/game. Change: -27.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Targets	Catches
2026-10-04	BAL	-1	1	1
2026-09-20	PHI	27	2	2
2026-09-13	NYJ	8	4	2
2026-01-04	JAX	9	7	7
2025-12-28	NO	-1	2	1
2025-12-21	KC	34	5	5
2025-12-14	SF	2	2	2
2025-12-07	CLE	24	4	2
2025-11-30	JAX	10	6	6
2025-11-23	SEA	12	5	4

Compare books

draftkings · Over 7.5 (-101)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

fanduel · Over 7.5 (-104)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Over 7.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 7.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Under 7.5 (-128)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Under 7.5 (-128)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET