Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 3.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

5/10 over 3.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 3.5–3.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 5.6 → latest five: 7.4 targets/game. Change: +32.1%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus3.5-155+120
B3653.5-125—
FD ↗3.5-162+122
HRB3.5-155+120
Novig ↗3.5-127+120
DK3.5-162+126
CZR ↗3.5-162—
PIN3.5-140+105
FAN3.5-165+110
MGM ↗3.5-125-105
Rec / game5.3
Targets31
Target share18%
Catch %68%
Season 2026: 21 rec · 226 yds · red-zone targets 6 (22% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4ATL96541
2026 · W3LV63390
2026 · W2BAL75640
2026 · W1DET97691
2025 · W15CAR65690
2025 · W14TB53400
2025 · W13MIA88931
2025 · W12ATL73370
2025 · W10CAR31150
2025 · W8TB51100