No clear lean · Research notes

Over 2.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 3.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3 → latest five: 3.8 targets/game. Change: +26.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus2.5-160+120
FD ↗2.5-152+114
CZR ↗3.5+153-205
DK2.5-150+117
Novig ↗2.5-144+133
HRB2.5-160+120
B3652.5-172—
PIN2.5-174+130
FAN3.5+145-220
MGM ↗2.5-165+125
PP ↗3DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗2.5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game3.0
Targets15
Target share15%
Catch %60%
Season 2026: 9 rec · 68 yds · red-zone targets 2 (17% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4MIA84340
2026 · W3TB65340
2026 · W2CHI0000
2026 · W1GB1001
2025 · W17DET43101
2025 · W16NYG3280
2025 · W15DAL33310
2025 · W14WAS1000
2025 · W13SEA44220
2025 · W12GB43160