No clear lean · Research notes

Over 10.5

3/5 recent hits; 8/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 12.5

2/5 recent hits; 2/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3.2 → latest five: 2.4 targets/game. Change: -25%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	11.5	-115	-115
FD ↗	11.5	-114	-114
FAN	10.5	-125	-120
CZR	11.5	-114	-114
MGM ↗	12.5	-120	-110
HRB	11.5	-115	-115
Novig ↗	11.5	-113	-113
PIN	11.5	-114	-114
PP ↗	11.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets6

Target share5%

Catch %100%

Yds / rec9.8

Season 2026: 6 rec · 59 yds · red-zone targets 1 (6% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	NE	2	2	9	0
2026 · W3	LAC	4	4	50	0
2025 · W18	NYJ	2	2	20	2
2025 · W17	PHI	4	3	33	0
2025 · W16	CLE	0	0	0	1
2025 · W15	NE	3	3	15	0
2025 · W14	CIN	3	2	14	0
2025 · W13	PIT	5	3	20	0
2025 · W12	HOU	3	3	45	0
2025 · W11	TB	2	2	61	1