No clear lean · Research notes

Over 3.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 3.5

2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4.4 → latest five: 5.8 targets/game. Change: +31.8%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	3.5	-137	-140
B365	3.5	+125	—
FD ↗	3.5	+100	-132
HRB	3.5	+115	-140
Novig ↗	3.5	+122	-135
CZR ↗	3.5	+109	-141
DK	3.5	+117	-149
FAN	3.5	+110	-165
MGM ↗	3.5	-111	-118
PIN	3.5	+111	-148

Rec / game3.8

Targets23

Target share17%

Catch %65%

Season 2026: 15 rec · 233 yds · red-zone targets 1 (5% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	KC	8	4	44	0
2026 · W3	NO	4	4	43	0
2026 · W2	LAC	7	5	119	1
2026 · W1	MIA	4	2	27	0
2025 · W18	KC	6	2	30	0
2025 · W17	NYG	6	5	49	0
2025 · W16	HOU	5	4	43	0
2025 · W15	PHI	3	0	0	0
2025 · W14	DEN	5	2	24	0
2025 · W13	LAC	3	3	20	0