Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 over 14.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 over 14.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

7 quoted books: 14.5–16.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.8 → latest five: 7 targets/game. Change: +150%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus15.5-115-115
FD ↗15.5-114-114
Novig ↗15.5-113-113
CZR14.5-114-114
FAN15.5-110-140
MGM ↗16.5+105-140
HRB15.5-115-115
PIN15.5-114-114
Underdog ↗14.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets26
Target share19%
Catch %46%
Yds / rec13.8
Season 2026: 12 rec · 166 yds · red-zone targets 1 (7% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4DAL53460
2026 · W3IND63510
2026 · W2CIN93370
2026 · W1BUF63320
2025 · W18IND95840
2025 · W17LAC32210
2025 · W16LV2140
2025 · W15ARI21160
2025 · W14KC2000
2025 · W13IND52390