Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

9/10 over 1.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

7 quoted books: 1.5–2.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3.2 → latest five: 2.4 targets/game. Change: -25%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	2.5	-155	+120
FD ↗	2.5	+152	-205
CZR ↗	2.5	+159	-213
FAN	2.5	+150	-245
DK	2.5	+140	-179
HRB	1.5	-155	+120
Novig ↗	2.5	+156	-201
PIN	2.5	+152	-205

Rec / game3.0

Targets6

Target share5%

Catch %100%

Season 2026: 6 rec · 59 yds · red-zone targets 1 (6% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	NE	2	2	9	0
2026 · W3	LAC	4	4	50	0
2025 · W18	NYJ	2	2	20	2
2025 · W17	PHI	4	3	33	0
2025 · W16	CLE	0	0	0	1
2025 · W15	NE	3	3	15	0
2025 · W14	CIN	3	2	14	0
2025 · W13	PIT	5	3	20	0
2025 · W12	HOU	3	3	45	0
2025 · W11	TB	2	2	61	1