No clear lean · Research notes

Over 15.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 18.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4.4 → latest five: 3.4 targets/game. Change: -22.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	17.5	-115	-115
FD ↗	17.5	-114	-114
Novig ↗	17.5	-113	-113
PIN	17.5	-114	-114
FAN	15.5	-140	-110
CZR	17.5	-114	-114
HRB	17.5	-115	-115
B365	17.5	-116	-116
MGM ↗	18.5	-105	-125
PP ↗	17.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets13

Target share10%

Catch %46%

Yds / rec11.0

Season 2026: 6 rec · 66 yds · red-zone targets 1 (5% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	SF	5	1	6	0
2026 · W3	LA	2	0	0	0
2026 · W2	JAX	1	1	17	0
2026 · W1	KC	5	4	43	1
2025 · W18	LAC	4	3	45	0
2025 · W17	KC	4	4	21	0
2025 · W16	JAX	4	2	36	0
2025 · W15	GB	3	1	12	0
2025 · W14	LV	2	2	8	0
2025 · W13	WAS	9	6	79	0