No clear lean · Research notes

Over 9.5

2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 9.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3.8 → latest five: 2.8 targets/game. Change: -26.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	9.5	-115	-115
FD ↗	9.5	-114	-114
HRB	9.5	-115	-115
Novig ↗	9.5	-113	-113
CZR ↗	9.5	-118	-110
PIN	9.5	-114	-114
PP ↗	9.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets7

Target share7%

Catch %71%

Yds / rec8.0

Season 2026: 5 rec · 40 yds · red-zone targets 0 (0% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	BAL	1	1	-1	0
2026 · W3	NYG	0	0	0	0
2026 · W2	PHI	2	2	29	0
2026 · W1	NYJ	4	2	12	0
2025 · W18	JAX	7	7	9	0
2025 · W17	NO	2	1	-1	0
2025 · W16	KC	5	5	53	1
2025 · W15	SF	2	2	2	0
2025 · W14	CLE	4	2	28	0
2025 · W13	JAX	6	6	25	0