Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 13.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 over 13.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 13.5–15.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 5.6 → latest five: 4.8 targets/game. Change: -14.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus13.5-137-137
FD ↗13.5-114-114
HRB13.5-115-115
CZR13.5-115-114
DK13.5-115-109
FAN15.5+100-150
Novig ↗13.5-113-113
PIN13.5-114-114
MGM ↗13.5-120-110
Underdog ↗14.5DFS projection · pick’em
PP ↗13.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets3
Target share3%
Catch %67%
Yds / rec-1.0
Season 2026: 2 rec · -2 yds · red-zone targets 0 (0% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W1TEN32-20
2025 · W14MIA85510
2025 · W13ATL42210
2025 · W12BAL53210
2025 · W11NE44300
2025 · W10CLE2140
2025 · W8CIN85341
2025 · W7CAR53310
2025 · W6DEN1120
2025 · W5DAL129670