No clear lean · Research notes

Over 27.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 30.5

2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 5.2 → latest five: 7.2 targets/game. Change: +38.5%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for IND and LAC; team changes may affect usage.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	29.5	-115	-115
CZR ↗	29.5	-115	-114
DK	29.5	-109	-115
FAN	30.5	-110	-135
HRB	29.5	-115	-115
PIN	28.5	-114	-114
B365	27.5	-116	-116
MGM ↗	28.5	-115	-115
PP ↗	29.5	DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗	39.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets20

Target share16%

Catch %65%

Yds / rec7.7

Season 2026: 13 rec · 100 yds · red-zone targets 3 (21% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W3	HOU	9	6	63	1
2026 · W2	KC	5	1	5	0
2026 · W1	BAL	6	6	32	0
2025 · W18	DEN	13	7	36	0
2025 · W17	HOU	3	1	17	0
2025 · W16	DAL	5	5	44	0
2025 · W15	KC	7	5	36	0
2025 · W14	PHI	3	3	22	0
2025 · W13	LV	5	4	30	0
2025 · W11	JAX	6	4	53	0