No clear lean · Research notes

Over 2.5

2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage.

Under 3.5

3/5 recent hits; 8/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4 → latest five: 4 targets/game. Change: 0%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	2.5	-170	+130
FD ↗	2.5	-172	+128
CZR ↗	3.5	+143	-180
FAN	3.5	+140	-220
DK	3.5	+136	-175
HRB	2.5	-170	+130
Novig ↗	2.5	-150	+144
PIN	2.5	-172	+128

Rec / game3.5

Targets16

Target share14%

Catch %88%

Season 2026: 14 rec · 217 yds · red-zone targets 3 (17% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	NE	7	6	116	1
2026 · W3	LAC	2	1	37	0
2026 · W2	DET	6	6	63	0
2026 · W1	HOU	1	1	1	0
2025 · W18	NYJ	4	2	49	0
2025 · W14	CIN	3	2	16	0
2025 · W13	PIT	3	2	9	1
2025 · W10	MIA	8	3	46	1
2025 · W9	KC	2	2	17	0
2025 · W8	CAR	4	3	30	0