Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 over 1.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 over 1.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 1.5–1.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 5.6 → latest five: 4.8 targets/game. Change: -14.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus1.5-137-137
B3651.5-167—
FD ↗1.5-154+116
HRB1.5-155+120
CZR ↗1.5-157+120
DK1.5-150+117
FAN1.5-155+105
Novig ↗1.5-144+117
PIN1.5-154+116
MGM ↗1.5-165+125
Underdog ↗2.5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game2.0
Targets3
Target share3%
Catch %67%
Season 2026: 2 rec · -2 yds · red-zone targets 0 (0% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W1TEN32-20
2025 · W14MIA85510
2025 · W13ATL42210
2025 · W12BAL53210
2025 · W11NE44300
2025 · W10CLE2140
2025 · W8CIN85341
2025 · W7CAR53310
2025 · W6DEN1120
2025 · W5DAL129670