No clear lean · Research notes

Over 11.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 12.5

2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4.4 → latest five: 6.6 opportunities/game. Change: +50%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Targets	Catches
2026-10-04	SF	18	10	10
2026-09-28	LAR	19	7	6
2026-09-15	KC	11	4	4
2026-01-25 PO	NE	11	6	4
2026-01-17 PO	BUF	24	6	5
2026-01-04	LAC	5	4	1
2025-12-26	KC	13	6	5
2025-12-21	JAX	32	5	4
2025-12-14	GB	0	1	0
2025-12-07	LV	9	6	6

Compare books

draftkings · Over 11.5 (-109)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

hardrockbet · Over 11.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Over 11.5 (-124)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Over 12.5 (-112)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Under 12.5 (-118)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Under 11.5 (-108)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 11.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Under 11.5 (-119)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET