Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 6.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 under 6.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 5.5–6.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 8.2 → latest five: 6.6 targets/game. Change: -19.5%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus5.5-153+116
FD ↗5.5-154+116
Novig ↗5.5-150+135
HRB5.5-155+120
B3655.5-141—
CZR ↗5.5-157—
DK5.5-148+116
PIN5.5-167+125
MGM ↗6.5+115-155
FAN6.5+125-195
CIR5.5-145+125
Underdog ↗4.5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game5.0
Targets25
Target share27%
Catch %80%
Season 2026: 20 rec · 370 yds · red-zone targets 0 (0% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4NO65960
2026 · W3GB1091940
2026 · W2CAR54510
2026 · W1PIT42290
2025 · W18NO84781
2025 · W17LA2140
2025 · W16ARI83270
2025 · W11CAR971190
2025 · W10IND861041
2025 · W9NE1491183