Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 19.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

5/10 over 19.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 19.5–20.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.6 → latest five: 6 targets/game. Change: +130.8%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 5/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	19.5	-115	-115
FD ↗	19.5	-114	-114
Novig ↗	19.5	-144	+120
HRB	19.5	-115	-115
CZR	20.5	-115	-111
DK	20.5	-116	-108
PIN	19.5	-131	-101
B365	20.5	-120	-111
FAN	20.5	-110	-135
MGM ↗	19.5	-135	+100
PP ↗	20.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets25

Target share16%

Catch %84%

Yds / rec8.2

Season 2026: 21 rec · 173 yds · red-zone targets 2 (13% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	PHI	13	10	67	2
2026 · W3	DEN	7	6	70	0
2026 · W2	NYG	2	2	12	1
2026 · W1	SF	3	3	24	1
2025 · W18	ARI	5	3	21	0
2025 · W17	ATL	3	3	38	0
2025 · W16	SEA	6	3	15	0
2025 · W15	DET	1	1	10	2
2025 · W14	ARI	2	2	13	1
2025 · W13	CAR	1	0	0	1