No clear lean · Research notes

Over 12.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 14.5

3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4 → latest five: 3.4 opportunities/game. Change: -15%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for NYG and ATL; team changes may affect usage.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Targets	Catches
2026-10-04	ARI	0	2	0
2026-09-27	TEN	13	3	2
2026-09-22	LAR	33	3	2
2026-09-14	DAL	18	2	2
2026-01-04	NO	10	7	3
2025-12-30	LAR	22	3	2
2025-12-21	ARI	17	2	2
2025-12-12	TB	16	6	3
2025-12-07	SEA	6	4	1
2025-11-30	NYJ	16	5	2

Compare books

fanduel · Over 12.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Over 14.5 (-107)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Over 14.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Over 14.5 (-118)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

draftkings · Under 14.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 14.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Under 14.5 (-125)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Under 12.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET