No clear lean · Research notes

Over 9.5

2/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 11.5

3/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 5.6 → latest five: 3.2 opportunities/game. Change: -42.9%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Targets	Catches
2026-09-28	DEN	0	1	0
2026-09-22	NYG	8	2	2
2026-09-11	SF	6	2	1
2026-01-25 PO	SEA	40	4	3
2026-01-18 PO	CHI	35	7	3
2026-01-10 PO	CAR	19	3	2
2026-01-04	ARI	21	7	4
2025-12-30	ATL	16	7	6
2025-12-19	SEA	16	4	2
2025-12-14	DET	26	7	5

Compare books

fanatics · Over 9.5 (-155)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Over 11.5 (-102)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Under 11.5 (-130)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET