No clear lean · Research notes

Over 18.5

2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 20.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3 → latest five: 3.8 targets/game. Change: +26.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus18.5-115-115
FD ↗18.5-114-114
Novig ↗18.5-127-102
CZR18.5-120-111
FAN20.5+100-150
HRB18.5-115-115
B36520.5-116-116
MGM ↗19.5-110-120
PIN18.5-122-109
PP ↗19.5DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗18.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets15
Target share15%
Catch %60%
Yds / rec7.6
Season 2026: 9 rec · 68 yds · red-zone targets 2 (17% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4MIA84340
2026 · W3TB65340
2026 · W2CHI0000
2026 · W1GB1001
2025 · W17DET43101
2025 · W16NYG3280
2025 · W15DAL33310
2025 · W14WAS1000
2025 · W13SEA44220
2025 · W12GB43160