Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 22.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

4/10 under 22.5; 0 pushes. L10 conflicts with L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

6 quoted books: 20.5–22.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4.8 → latest five: 3.6 targets/game. Change: -25%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 conflicts with L5: 4/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	21.5	-110	-120
FD ↗	21.5	-114	-114
Novig ↗	21.5	-111	-113
HRB	22.5	-110	-120
FAN	20.5	-125	-120
PIN	21.5	-114	-114
MGM ↗	22.5	-115	-115
PP ↗	22.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets15

Target share13%

Catch %60%

Yds / rec11.3

Season 2026: 9 rec · 102 yds · red-zone targets 5 (24% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	LAC	3	1	12	0
2026 · W3	WAS	9	5	69	0
2026 · W2	ARI	1	1	8	1
2026 · W1	NE	2	2	13	0
2025 · W18	SF	3	2	14	0
2025 · W17	CAR	3	3	43	1
2025 · W16	LA	6	4	49	1
2025 · W15	IND	6	3	27	0
2025 · W14	ATL	4	3	27	0
2025 · W13	MIN	5	4	35	0