Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 24.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 over 24.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

7 quoted books: 24.5–38.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4 → latest five: 4 targets/game. Change: 0%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus37.5-115-115
B36538.5-116-116
FD ↗37.5-114-114
HRB37.5-115-115
FAN35.5-125-115
MGM ↗24.5-275—
Novig ↗37.5-113-102
PIN37.5-114-114
Underdog ↗34.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets16
Target share14%
Catch %88%
Yds / rec15.5
Season 2026: 14 rec · 217 yds · red-zone targets 3 (17% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4NE761161
2026 · W3LAC21370
2026 · W2DET66630
2026 · W1HOU1110
2025 · W18NYJ42490
2025 · W14CIN32160
2025 · W13PIT3291
2025 · W10MIA83461
2025 · W9KC22170
2025 · W8CAR43300