No clear lean · Research notes

Over 14.5

2/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 15.5

3/5 recent hits; 5/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 8.4 → latest five: 5 opportunities/game. Change: -40.5%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Targets	Catches
2026-10-02	PIT	13	5	3
2026-09-27	CAR	14	9	7
2026-09-20	TB	21	6	5
2026-09-13	JAX	12	3	2
2025-12-28	PIT	28	2	2
2025-12-21	BUF	13	6	4
2025-12-14	CHI	13	14	7
2025-12-07	TEN	35	11	8
2025-11-30	SF	34	5	3
2025-11-23	LV	17	6	4

Compare books

draftkings · Over 14.5 (-122)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

hardrockbet · Over 15.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 15.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Under 14.5 (-106)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET