Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 under 3.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 under 3.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 2.5–3.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 7.6 → latest five: 2.8 targets/game. Change: -63.2%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus2.5-132+104
B3652.5-116—
FD ↗2.5-144+108
HRB2.5-140+110
Novig ↗2.5-117+111
CZR ↗2.5-137+105
DK2.5-132+104
MGM ↗2.5-140+105
FAN3.5+175-280
PIN2.5-144+108
Rec / game1.3
Targets13
Target share9%
Catch %39%
Season 2026: 5 rec · 85 yds · red-zone targets 2 (7% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4NYG41121
2026 · W3SF53400
2026 · W2SEA1000
2026 · W1LAC31330
2025 · W17CIN1000
2025 · W16ATL31140
2025 · W13TB76690
2025 · W10SEA123331
2025 · W9DAL107961
2025 · W7GB62580