Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 24.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 over 24.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

6 quoted books: 24.5–29.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 9.8 → latest five: 10.4 opportunities/game. Change: +6.1%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Targets	Catches
2026-10-04	LAC	28	6	5
2026-09-27	WSH	26	14	10
2026-09-20	ARI	82	11	9
2026-09-10	NE	45	11	8
2026-02-08 PO	NE	16	10	4
2026-01-25 PO	LAR	42	12	10
2026-01-18 PO	SF	11	4	3
2026-01-04	SF	19	8	6
2025-12-28	CAR	18	12	9
2025-12-19	LAR	27	13	8

Compare books

caesars · Over 24.5 (-130)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

betmgm · Over 26.5 (-111)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Over 27.5 (-107)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

hardrockbet · Over 27.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Over 28.5 (-114)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanatics · Over 29.5 (+125)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Under 28.5 (-114)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 27.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Under 27.5 (-121)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

betmgm · Under 26.5 (-118)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Under 24.5 (-103)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET