Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 17.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 under 17.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

3 quoted books: 16.5–17.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.4 → latest five: 2.6 targets/game. Change: +8.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	17.5	-137	-137
CZR	17.5	-118	-110
DK	17.5	-113	-111
PIN	16.5	-122	-108
Underdog ↗	12.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets11

Target share9%

Catch %91%

Yds / rec8.4

Season 2026: 10 rec · 84 yds · red-zone targets 1 (4% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	NYJ	2	2	16	0
2026 · W3	PHI	3	2	4	0
2026 · W2	MIN	5	5	54	0
2026 · W1	CAR	1	1	10	3
2025 · W18	DET	2	1	8	0
2025 · W17	SF	3	2	25	2
2025 · W16	GB	2	2	12	0
2025 · W15	CLE	1	1	-2	2
2025 · W14	GB	4	3	19	0
2025 · W13	PHI	2	1	13	1