Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 8.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 over 8.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

4 quoted books: 8.5–8.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4.4 → latest five: 3.4 opportunities/game. Change: -22.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion.
L10 is mixed: 7/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

Game	Opponent	Longest	Targets	Catches
2026-10-04	ARI	8	1	1
2026-09-27	TEN	30	4	3
2026-09-22	LAR	19	4	4
2025-10-26	PHI	18	2	1
2025-10-19	DEN	13	6	3
2025-10-10	PHI	8	2	2
2025-10-05	NO	15	7	6
2025-09-28	LAC	7	2	2
2025-09-22	KC	21	8	6
2025-09-14	DAL	9	3	2

Compare books

fanduel · Over 8.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Over 8.5 (-113)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Over 8.5 (-116)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

hardrockbet · Over 8.5 (-125)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 8.5 (-105)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Under 8.5 (-112)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

caesars · Under 8.5 (-118)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Under 8.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET