Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 4.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 under 4.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 4.5–4.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 6 → latest five: 5.4 targets/game. Change: -10%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus4.5-137-128
B3654.5-105—
FD ↗4.5-108-122
Novig ↗4.5+108-122
HRB4.5-105-125
CZR ↗4.5-106-124
DK4.5+100-128
MGM ↗4.5-105-125
FAN4.5+100-150
PIN4.5-108-122
Underdog ↗4.5DFS projection · pick’em
PP ↗4.5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game3.8
Targets24
Target share16%
Catch %63%
Season 2026: 15 rec · 148 yds · red-zone targets 4 (16% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4TB76421
2026 · W3ATL84260
2026 · W2NYJ32150
2026 · W1MIN63650
2025 · W9CAR32200
2025 · W8PIT971432
2025 · W7ARI105581
2025 · W6CIN22431
2025 · W4DAL55560
2025 · W3CLE43290