No clear lean · Research notes

Over 25.5

2/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 25.5

3/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.4 → latest five: 3.4 targets/game. Change: +41.7%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for HOU and NE; team changes may affect usage.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	25.5	-115	-115
FD ↗	25.5	-114	-114
Novig ↗	25.5	-113	-113
CZR	25.5	-115	-114
FAN	25.5	-105	-140
MGM ↗	25.5	-115	-115
PIN	25.5	-114	-114
HRB	25.5	-115	-115
PP ↗	25.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets13

Target share9%

Catch %69%

Yds / rec12.8

Season 2026: 9 rec · 115 yds · red-zone targets 2 (14% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	DAL	4	3	36	0
2026 · W3	IND	2	2	21	0
2026 · W2	CIN	5	3	37	0
2026 · W1	BUF	2	1	21	0
2025 · W18	MIA	4	2	24	0
2025 · W16	BAL	3	1	16	0
2025 · W15	BUF	1	1	30	0
2025 · W13	NYG	5	4	35	1
2025 · W12	CIN	2	2	15	0
2025 · W9	ATL	1	0	0	0