No clear lean · Research notes

Over 3.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 3.5

2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 9.4 → latest five: 7.4 targets/game. Change: -21.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for TEN and NYG; team changes may affect usage.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	3.5	-135	+105
B365	3.5	-141	—
DK	3.5	-143	+112
HRB	3.5	-135	+105
Novig ↗	3.5	-117	+111
CZR ↗	3.5	-139	+107
FD ↗	3.5	-144	+108
PIN	3.5	-127	-104
FAN	3.5	-150	-105
Underdog ↗	4.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Rec / game4.0

Targets23

Target share21%

Catch %70%

Season 2026: 16 rec · 123 yds · red-zone targets 4 (29% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	BAL	5	3	19	1
2026 · W3	NYG	11	7	57	1
2026 · W2	PHI	1	1	9	0
2026 · W1	NYJ	6	5	38	0
2025 · W17	LV	14	11	113	0
2025 · W16	MIN	6	3	19	0
2025 · W15	WAS	10	5	54	1
2025 · W13	NE	8	7	34	0
2025 · W12	DET	14	9	156	1
2025 · W11	GB	9	4	36	0