Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 4.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 under 4.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 3.5–4.5. Selected threshold is better than the median quoted line.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3.6 → latest five: 4.6 targets/game. Change: +27.8%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for NE and GB; team changes may affect usage.
Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	3.5	-137	+120
FD ↗	3.5	-148	+112
Novig ↗	3.5	-133	+122
CZR ↗	4.5	+138	-182
DK	4.5	+124	-159
FAN	4.5	+130	-205
MGM ↗	3.5	-160	+120
HRB	3.5	-160	+120
PIN	3.5	-148	+112
B365	3.5	-125	—
Underdog ↗	4.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Rec / game3.0

Targets20

Target share17%

Catch %60%

Season 2026: 12 rec · 203 yds · red-zone targets 4 (27% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	BUF	9	6	58	2
2026 · W3	JAX	4	3	49	0
2026 · W2	PIT	4	3	96	0
2026 · W1	SEA	3	0	0	0
2025 · W17	BAL	3	3	62	0
2025 · W16	CHI	6	5	84	1
2025 · W15	DEN	3	2	36	0
2025 · W14	CHI	2	0	0	0
2025 · W13	DET	4	4	20	1
2025 · W12	MIN	3	2	23	0