Under lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 under 2.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

6/10 under 2.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

7 quoted books: 2.5–2.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4.6 → latest five: 2.8 targets/game. Change: -39.1%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L10 is mixed: 6/10 historical hits. Review the longer sample before acting.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	2.5	+100	-130
B365	2.5	-111	—
FD ↗	2.5	-110	-120
HRB	2.5	+100	-130
Novig ↗	2.5	+120	-127
DK	2.5	+116	-148
CZR ↗	2.5	+105	-138
FAN	2.5	-105	-140
PIN	2.5	+101	-133

Rec / game2.3

Targets12

Target share11%

Catch %75%

Season 2026: 9 rec · 60 yds · red-zone targets 4 (29% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	BAL	1	1	5	0
2026 · W3	NYG	4	2	14	0
2026 · W2	PHI	2	2	13	0
2026 · W1	NYJ	5	4	28	0
2025 · W17	NO	2	1	1	0
2025 · W16	KC	3	2	9	0
2025 · W15	SF	4	4	49	1
2025 · W14	CLE	2	1	8	0
2025 · W13	JAX	7	6	23	0
2025 · W12	SEA	7	6	51	0