Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 42.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

4/10 over 42.5; 0 pushes. L10 conflicts with L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

6 quoted books: 42.5–45.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 2.8 → latest five: 6.4 targets/game. Change: +128.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus44.5-115-115
FD ↗44.5-114-114
HRB45.5-115-115
CZR45.5-122-108
MGM ↗42.5-125-105
PIN44.5-130-102
Novig ↗44.5-113-106
PP ↗44.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets28
Target share28%
Catch %61%
Yds / rec12.9
Season 2026: 17 rec · 219 yds · red-zone targets 1 (20% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4MIN55670
2026 · W3KC105560
2026 · W2SF54430
2026 · W1LV83530
2025 · W18NE4361
2025 · W17TB3140
2025 · W16CIN11231
2025 · W15PIT11100
2025 · W14NYJ43100
2025 · W13NO54300