Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 14.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 over 14.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 14.5–15.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4 → latest five: 4.2 targets/game. Change: +5%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus14.5-137-137
FD ↗14.5-114-114
CZR14.5-113-117
FAN15.5-105-150
MGM ↗15.5-115-115
DK14.5-108-116
HRB14.5-115-115
Novig ↗14.5+104-111
PIN14.5-114-114
Underdog ↗14.5DFS projection · pick’em
PP ↗14.5DFS projection · pick’em
Targets8
Target share7%
Catch %63%
Yds / rec12.4
Season 2026: 5 rec · 62 yds · red-zone targets 0 (0% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4PIT33360
2026 · W2TB1000
2026 · W1JAX42260
2025 · W18CIN62170
2025 · W17PIT75540
2025 · W16BUF43120
2025 · W15CHI42220
2025 · W14TEN53761
2025 · W13SF43260
2025 · W12LV31390