No clear lean · Research notes

Over 40.5

2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload supports this side.

Under 47.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. Line advantage qualifies. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 3.4 → latest five: 4.2 targets/game. Change: +23.5%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for PHI and GB; team changes may affect usage.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	44.5	-115	-115
FD ↗	44.5	-114	-114
CZR	44.5	-120	-112
DK	43.5	-112	-112
PIN	47.5	-106	-125
MGM ↗	44.5	-115	-115
Novig ↗	44.5	-113	-113
HRB	44.5	-115	-115
FAN	40.5	-135	-110
PP ↗	44.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets20

Target share19%

Catch %60%

Yds / rec16.4

Season 2026: 12 rec · 197 yds · red-zone targets 4 (31% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	LA	5	3	18	0
2026 · W3	CHI	5	2	32	0
2026 · W2	TEN	6	5	74	0
2026 · W1	WAS	4	2	73	1
2025 · W17	BAL	1	1	7	0
2025 · W16	CHI	2	2	12	0
2025 · W15	DEN	2	1	6	0
2025 · W13	DET	7	6	94	2
2025 · W12	MIN	4	2	32	0
2025 · W11	NYG	2	1	9	0