Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

4/5 over 15.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

8/10 over 15.5; 0 pushes. L10 supports L5. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

8 quoted books: 15.5–24.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4 → latest five: 3.4 targets/game. Change: -15%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026. Workload includes games for NYG and ATL; team changes may affect usage.
Workload moves against this historical trend. This is context, not an eligibility exclusion.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	17.5	-120	-110
FD ↗	17.5	-114	-114
Novig ↗	17.5	-117	-122
FAN	15.5	-125	-115
CZR	17.5	-118	-112
HRB	17.5	-120	-110
DK	18.5	-111	-113
PIN	18.5	-114	-114
MGM ↗	24.5	+120	—
PP ↗	17.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets10

Target share9%

Catch %60%

Yds / rec15.8

Season 2026: 6 rec · 95 yds · red-zone targets 0 (0% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds
2026 · W4	ARI	2	0	0
2026 · W3	TEN	3	2	20
2026 · W2	LA	3	2	48
2026 · W1	DAL	2	2	27
2025 · W18	NO	7	3	20
2025 · W17	LA	3	2	35
2025 · W16	ARI	2	2	24
2025 · W15	TB	6	3	35
2025 · W14	SEA	4	1	6
2025 · W13	NYJ	5	2	25