No clear lean · Research notes

Over 7.5

2/5 recent hits; 2/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 8.5

3/5 recent hits; 8/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 1.2 → latest five: 1.6 opportunities/game. Change: +33.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

History: qualifying longest-play games; current and previous seasons may be included. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

GameOpponentLongestTargetsCatches
2026-10-04MIN022
2026-09-27KC1933
2026-01-04NE211
2025-10-31BAL311
2025-10-26ATL2011
2025-10-19CLE221
2025-10-12LAC111
2025-09-29NYJ010
2025-09-14NE511
2025-09-07IND-111

Compare books

fanduel · Over 7.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Over 8.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

hardrockbet · Over 8.5 (-110)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

betmgm · Over 8.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Over 8.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

novig · Over 8.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:23 PM ET

betmgm · Under 8.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

caesars · Under 8.5 (-115)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

draftkings · Under 8.5 (-118)Updated Oct 9, 2:22 PM ET

hardrockbet · Under 8.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET

fanduel · Under 7.5 (-120)Updated Oct 9, 2:24 PM ET