No clear lean · Research notes

Over 1.5

3/5 recent hits; 7/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Under 1.5

2/5 recent hits; 3/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Historical workload

Previous five: 4.4 → latest five: 1.6 targets/game. Change: -63.6%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	1.5	+120	-155
FD ↗	1.5	+118	-158
CZR ↗	1.5	+121	-159
DK	1.5	+120	-154
FAN	1.5	+110	-165
HRB	1.5	+120	-155
Novig ↗	1.5	+125	-162
PIN	1.5	+118	-158

Rec / game1.5

Targets6

Target share5%

Catch %100%

Season 2026: 6 rec · 30 yds · red-zone targets 2 (11% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	NE	2	2	13	0
2026 · W3	LAC	1	1	5	0
2026 · W2	DET	2	2	5	1
2026 · W1	HOU	1	1	7	0
2025 · W18	NYJ	2	2	24	1
2025 · W17	PHI	5	5	30	0
2025 · W16	CLE	2	1	10	0
2025 · W15	NE	4	3	37	2
2025 · W14	CIN	7	6	93	0
2025 · W13	PIT	4	3	28	0