No clear lean · Research notes

Over 9.5

3/5 recent hits; 4/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload supports this side.

Under 10.5

2/5 recent hits; 6/10 across available history. No qualifying line advantage. Workload moves against this historical trend.

Historical workload

Previous five: 0.6 → latest five: 1.4 targets/game. Change: +133.3%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Confirm injuries, lineup and role before acting. Opponent adjustments are not included.
Workload spans 2025–2026.
L5 below 4/5 on available quoted sides.

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines

Book	Line	Over	Under
Consensus	9.5	-115	-115
FD ↗	9.5	-114	-114
Novig ↗	9.5	-104	+100
HRB	9.5	-115	-115
FAN	10.5	+100	-150
CZR ↗	9.5	-114	-114
DK ↗	9.5	-116	-108
PIN	9.5	-114	-114
PP ↗	9.5	DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗	9.5	DFS projection · pick’em

Targets7

Target share7%

Catch %100%

Yds / rec7.7

Season 2026: 7 rec · 54 yds · red-zone targets 1 (6% of team)

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026

Wk	Opp	Tgt	Rec	Rec Yds	TDs
2026 · W4	CIN	2	2	18	0
2026 · W3	NE	2	2	17	1
2026 · W2	DEN	2	2	-3	1
2026 · W1	CLE	1	1	22	0
2025 · W18	TEN	0	0	0	1
2025 · W15	NYJ	1	1	16	1
2025 · W14	IND	0	0	0	0
2025 · W13	TEN	1	1	2	1
2025 · W12	ARI	1	0	0	0
2025 · W11	LAC	0	0	0	1