Over lean · Research notes

Recent results

5/5 over 6.5; 0 pushes in five (not hits).

Longer history

7/10 over 6.5; 0 pushes. L10 is mixed. This context does not determine eligibility.

Available lines

9 quoted books: 6.5–6.5. No qualifying line advantage.

Historical workload

Previous five: 10 → latest five: 11.8 targets/game. Change: +18%.

Feed snapshot: Oct 9, 2:30 PM ET. Research applies to the quoted threshold and price.

Before considering this prop

Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026. Season totals are separate. Historical hit rates are not forecast probabilities. No calculated edge or stake recommendation.

All posted lines
BookLineOverUnder
Consensus6.5-115-115
B3656.5-120—
FD ↗6.5-112-118
HRB6.5-115-115
Novig ↗6.5-106-104
DK6.5-121-106
CZR ↗6.5-110-118
PIN6.5-104-127
FAN6.5-110-135
MGM ↗6.5-110-120
PP ↗6.5DFS projection · pick’em
Underdog ↗6.5DFS projection · pick’em
Rec / game8.8
Targets48
Target share28%
Catch %73%
Season 2026: 35 rec · 491 yds · red-zone targets 5 (19% of team)
Last 10 qualifying regular-season games · 2025–2026
WkOppTgtRecRec YdsTDs
2026 · W4ATL1281160
2026 · W3LV1391070
2026 · W2BAL108861
2026 · W1DET13101820
2025 · W17TEN1181191
2025 · W16NYJ16101482
2025 · W15CAR96851
2025 · W14TB53300
2025 · W13MIA74471
2025 · W12ATL139700